Muhammad Amanullah
Date: September 24, 2026 The True Post (Web News) —Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has disclosed that his government examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action against Canada, describing such a scenario as an “extreme tail risk” rather than a likely or baseline outcome.
In a lengthy interview with The New York Times, Carney declined to provide details about what the assessment involved. He said, however, that governments have a responsibility to prepare for highly unlikely scenarios if the potential consequences are severe.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney said, according to The Canadian Press. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to prepare.” (CityNews Toronto)
Assessment of an Extreme Scenario
Carney’s comments came in response to questions about whether he takes U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated comments about Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state seriously.
The prime minister did not say what specific preparations Canada had undertaken or provide operational details about the assessment.
His description of the possibility as an “extreme tail risk” indicated that he was discussing a low-probability scenario that nevertheless warranted consideration as part of government risk management. (CityNews Toronto)
Trump’s 51st-State Comments
Trump has repeatedly spoken about the possibility of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state.
In January 2025, Trump ruled out using military force to annex Canada but said he could consider using what he described as “economic force” to encourage Canada to become part of the United States. (CityNews Toronto)
The issue has remained part of the broader political and economic tensions between Ottawa and Washington.
Trade Relations Under Pressure
The latest comments come as Canada-U.S. trade relations remain strained.
Trade negotiations between the two countries broke down in August, after which tensions escalated further. Trump subsequently imposed additional tariffs on Canadian goods, while Canada has maintained retaliatory measures.
The deterioration in trade relations has also encouraged Ottawa to examine Canada’s dependence on the United States in several strategic sectors.
Carney has previously said Canada intends to become more resilient and diversify its economic relationships while maintaining its relationship with the United States. (The Washington Post)
Canada Reviewing F-35 Purchase
Carney also discussed Canada’s plans for its military aircraft procurement.
His government is reviewing the country’s planned purchase of American-made F-35 fighter jets and considering alternatives.
The issue has attracted additional attention amid the broader deterioration in Canada-U.S. relations. The New York Times reported that Carney has been examining ways to reduce Canada’s dependence on American suppliers, including in defence and technology. (Bankwatch)
Reducing Reliance on Starlink
Another area discussed by Carney was Canada’s reliance on Starlink, the satellite internet service operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
Canada is examining ways to reduce its dependence on the service as part of a broader effort to diversify critical technology and communications infrastructure.
The move forms part of a wider strategy described by Carney to reduce vulnerabilities arising from excessive dependence on a single foreign supplier or country. (Bankwatch)
Carney and Trump Still in Frequent Contact
Despite the worsening trade relationship, Carney said he and Trump continue to speak frequently.
According to the interview reports, the two leaders have remained in contact even after trade negotiations collapsed.
Carney has previously said that Canada and the United States can continue working together on issues where their interests overlap, while handling disagreements separately.
No Meeting at United Nations
Carney and Trump were both in New York this week for the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, but the two leaders did not meet.
The trip was also significant because it was Carney’s first visit to the United States since the latest round of Canada-U.S. trade negotiations broke down.
Trump Again Raises Immigration Issue
Amid the tensions, Trump also criticised Canada’s immigration policies on social media.
He claimed that Canada had allowed large numbers of people to enter the country without adequate screening and linked immigration to political developments in Canada.
Trump did not provide evidence for the specific claims in the posts.
Canada Seeks Greater Strategic Diversification
Carney’s comments about military risk, fighter jets and satellite communications form part of a broader discussion in Ottawa about reducing Canada’s dependence on the United States in strategically important areas.
The Canadian government has been seeking to diversify trade, investment, technology and supply chains while continuing to maintain direct communication with Washington.
Carney’s remarks about the possibility of U.S. military action do not indicate that such action is expected. Rather, he characterised the scenario as an extreme risk that the government considered as part of its broader approach to national risk management. (CityNews Toronto)
