Although the recent telephone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has apparently left a “productive and positive” impression, the real question is whether this conversation will actually improve relations in the future or will it further increase tensions between the two countries? The 35% tariff imposed by Trump on Canada has severely damaged bilateral trade relations.

The US position is that Canada is not cooperating in stopping the smuggling of drugs, especially fentanyl, while Canada has completely rejected this position and has imposed retaliatory tariffs. In such a situation, the contact between Carney and Trump seems to temporarily soften the diplomatic atmosphere, but the ground realities are still bitter.
Carney emphasized during the conversation that Canada is committed under CUSMA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and that the deterioration of bilateral relations will have global economic effects. However, Trump’s past record suggests that he uses trade agreements to suit his political and electoral agenda, so any immediate progress is unlikely. More importantly, the two leaders also discussed the Ukraine war and European security, which indicates that the Canada-US relationship is not limited to trade but is also linked to global geopolitics.

But the question is, when the trade foundation itself weakens, will security and foreign policy cooperation remain as strong? According to experts, the coming days will be decisive. If Trump does not ease his tariff policy, Canada will have no choice but to find more trading allies globally. And if this conversation between Carney and Trump turns into practical steps, a new path could open up in North American relations.