Muhammad Amanullah — September 17, 2026
Canada could face the effects of an unusually strong El Niño this year, with meteorologists warning that warmer and drier conditions could influence temperatures, snowfall and rainfall patterns across several parts of the country.
The latest forecasts suggest that the developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean could become one of the strongest events historically recorded. Its effects may be felt through the coming winter and could continue into the spring and summer of 2027.
Western Canada Expected to Be Most Affected
According to weather experts, Western Canada, the Prairies and parts of northwestern Ontario could experience some of the most noticeable effects.
These areas may see warmer and drier-than-normal conditions during the winter, with some of the impacts potentially continuing into spring and summer 2027.
Warmer conditions could also lead to below-normal snowpack in several affected areas. Reduced snowfall in mountainous regions and elsewhere could have implications for water availability later in the year.
Less Snow Could Mean Greater Risks
Lower snowfall does not simply mean a shorter or milder winter. It can have several environmental consequences.
Less snowmelt in spring could reduce the amount of water available to rivers, reservoirs and ecosystems. Snow cover also provides natural protection for soil and vegetation during the colder months.
If dry and warm conditions continue after winter, some regions could face increased risks of wildfires and drought.
Water supplies and agricultural activities could also come under greater pressure if precipitation remains below normal.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern associated with unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
It generally occurs every two to seven years and forms as part of a broader cycle involving El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions.
When unusually warm surface water in the Pacific shifts eastward, it can influence global atmospheric circulation, including wind, rainfall and temperature patterns.
The greater the increase in ocean temperatures above normal levels, the stronger the El Niño event is generally considered to be.
Risk of a “Super El Niño”
Experts describe an exceptionally strong El Niño as occurring when sea-surface temperatures in the relevant Pacific region rise about 2 degrees Celsius or more above normal.
In August, temperatures in the region were reportedly around 1.89 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
The previous record was approximately 2.4 degrees Celsius above normal during the 1982-83 El Niño.
Some climate models are suggesting that the temperature difference could reach 3 or even 4 degrees Celsius during the coming winter, raising concerns that the current event could become exceptionally strong.
Ontario Could See Different Effects
Southern Ontario could experience conditions different from those expected in Western Canada.
While El Niño could contribute to a shorter winter, temperatures may fluctuate considerably, with repeated periods of freezing and thawing.
Such conditions could increase the risk of freezing rain and flooding in some areas.
Repeated freeze-thaw cycles could also contribute to more potholes and damage to roads.
At the same time, reduced ice formation on the Great Lakes could potentially extend the annual shipping season, allowing vessels to operate for a longer period.
Colder Conditions Possible in Quebec and the Maritimes
Some eastern parts of Canada could experience the opposite pattern.
Quebec and much of the Maritime provinces could see relatively colder conditions during the coming winter.
Changes in winter weather could also affect industries that depend on specific cold-weather conditions, including maple syrup production and ice wine.
Both industries rely on particular seasonal temperature patterns, meaning unusual weather can influence production conditions.
Possible Reduction in Atlantic Hurricanes
One potential benefit associated with El Niño is a reduction in hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
By the middle of September, no major hurricane had formed in the Atlantic, while notable storm activity had occurred around the same period in some previous years.
El Niño can influence atmospheric conditions in ways that may suppress Atlantic hurricane development, although hurricane activity depends on multiple factors.
El Niño Could Continue Into 2027
According to the forecast cited in the report, there is a more than 90 per cent possibility that the current El Niño will reach historically strong levels.
Its influence could peak during the winter and potentially continue into the spring of 2027.
However, meteorologists caution that climate and weather systems are highly variable, meaning conditions can change rapidly over the coming months.
The effects of El Niño are also unlikely to be uniform across Canada. Different regions can experience significantly different temperature, precipitation and snowfall patterns depending on their location and other atmospheric factors.
For Canadians, the potential combination of warmer winter conditions, reduced snowpack and prolonged dryness could have important implications for water availability, agriculture and wildfire risk in some regions, while other parts of the country could experience colder or more variable conditions.
