Muhammad Amanullah
Date: September 22, 2026 The True Post (Web News) —US President Donald Trump has said Washington is working on a major deal to purchase potash from Belarus at a price he says would be substantially lower than what the United States currently pays Canadian suppliers.
Trump described the proposed arrangement as good news for American farmers and ranchers, saying cheaper potash could help reduce fertilizer costs. However, details of the potential agreement, including its final price, volume, duration and delivery arrangements, have not been disclosed. (Reuters)
Trump’s Announcement
Trump announced the proposed deal in a post on Truth Social, saying the United States was working on a “massive” agreement to purchase potash from Belarus.
He said the price would be substantially lower than the amount currently paid to Canada.
The announcement comes amid continuing trade tensions between Washington and Ottawa and could give US buyers an alternative source of potash, a key fertilizer input.
Canada currently supplies the vast majority of US potash imports. The US Geological Survey estimates that Canada accounted for about 79 per cent of US potash imports, while Global News reported Russia at about 11 per cent and Belarus at roughly 3 per cent. (Global News)
Why Canada Matters to the US Fertilizer Market
Canada is the world’s leading potash exporter, with Saskatchewan at the centre of the country’s production industry.
The geographic proximity between Saskatchewan and major US agricultural markets has helped make Canadian potash an important part of the North American fertilizer supply chain.
According to Natural Resources Canada data cited by The Canadian Press, the United States imported about C$4.2 billion worth of Canadian potash in 2025, representing nearly half of Canada’s potash exports. (CityNews Calgary)
The proposed Belarus deal therefore has implications beyond fertilizer prices, particularly because it comes during a broader dispute over trade between Canada and the United States.
Why Potash Is Important for Farmers
Potash is a major source of potassium used in fertilizer production. Potassium helps support plant growth, crop quality, disease resistance and water management.
The USGS describes potash as a critical agricultural input and says there are no direct substitutes for potassium in agriculture. (Global News)
If Belarusian supplies could be delivered to the United States at a lower overall cost, American farmers could potentially benefit. But the actual effect would depend on the final purchase price, available volumes, transportation costs and other supply-chain factors.
Belarus May Not Have Large Volumes Available
One of the biggest uncertainties surrounding the proposed agreement is whether Belarus can provide the amount of potash needed by the United States.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said his country does not currently have large additional volumes available for Western markets because much of its production is already contracted.
Lukashenko said Belarus had resumed selling potash to the United States following the easing of US sanctions, but he also indicated that the country could not immediately provide large quantities beyond existing commitments. (Reuters)
That creates a potential gap between the scale of the deal described by Trump and the amount of potash Belarus may actually be able to supply.
Transportation Creates Another Challenge
Belarus is a landlocked country, meaning any large-scale shipment of potash to the United States requires a complicated transportation route.
Belarusian potash exports previously relied heavily on Lithuania’s Baltic port of Klaipeda. However, sanctions and restrictions have complicated that route.
The European Union continues to maintain sanctions affecting Belarusian potash exports. As a result, increased shipments to the United States would likely have to use Russian ports and longer transportation routes. (Reuters)
The additional distance and logistics costs could make it more difficult for Belarusian potash to reach American farmers at the low prices suggested by Trump.
Analysts Question the Potential Price Impact
Fertilizer analyst Josh Linville of StoneX said he was doubtful that Belarusian potash would have a major immediate effect on US fertilizer prices.
Linville said the United States has not been experiencing a serious shortage of potash and argued that the more pressing need is for additional nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer supplies.
He also pointed to transportation economics, noting that even if access through Lithuania’s Klaipeda port were restored, shipping relatively low-value potash through the Baltic and across the Atlantic could be difficult to justify economically. (Reuters)
Lukashenko Seeks Release of Frozen Funds
The potential potash trade is also linked to the broader improvement in US-Belarus relations.
Lukashenko said earlier this month that Belarus had resumed potash sales to the United States after Washington eased some sanctions.
He has also asked the United States to release more than $40 million that he says remains frozen in the American banking system. Discussions have reportedly taken place over how those funds could be released. (Investing.com Canada)
The development follows recent diplomatic contacts between Washington and Minsk, including negotiations involving the release of political prisoners and partial sanctions relief.
Canada Faces a New Market Challenge
The proposed agreement has drawn attention in Saskatchewan, Canada’s main potash-producing province.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said the United States would face significant logistical challenges if it attempted to replace Canadian supplies with Belarusian potash.
Moe argued that Belarusian potash would have to travel through Russia before being shipped across the ocean and then transported into the United States. His comments were part of a broader criticism of expanding trade with Belarus. (Global News)
Canadian fertilizer industry representatives, meanwhile, have highlighted the advantages of Canada’s existing North American supply chain, including geographic proximity, transportation infrastructure and reliable access for farmers during key application periods. (Global News)
Global Fertilizer Market Under Pressure
The proposed Belarus deal comes as the global fertilizer market faces supply and transportation pressures.
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has disrupted parts of the global fertilizer supply chain, particularly for nitrogen and phosphate products. Reuters reported that disruptions have affected shipments of nitrogen fertilizer, natural gas and sulfur used in phosphate production. (Reuters)
This situation has increased the importance of securing reliable fertilizer supplies for agricultural producers.
What the Deal Could Mean for Canada
If Washington succeeds in securing significant quantities of Belarusian potash at a competitive delivered price, it could introduce another supplier into the US market and potentially reduce Canada’s share of American imports.
However, the ultimate impact remains uncertain because the proposed agreement’s commercial terms have not been released and Belarus has indicated that its additional available supply is limited.
Transportation costs, sanctions, access to ports, available production and the final purchase price will all play a role in determining whether Belarusian potash can compete effectively with Canadian supplies.
For now, Trump’s announcement represents a proposed shift in US fertilizer sourcing rather than a completed replacement of Canadian potash imports.
