Muhammad Amanullah
Date: September 26, 2026 The True Post (Web News) —EDMONTON: Alberta’s political landscape has tightened considerably, with a new provincewide poll showing the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) and Opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) tied at 41 per cent among voters.
The survey by Janet Brown Opinion Research, commissioned by CBC, indicates a significant change from the spring. UCP support has fallen by eight percentage points since April, while NDP support has increased by five points.
The findings provide a snapshot of voter intentions ahead of several major political developments in Alberta, including the October referendum. They do not represent an election result or predict how Albertans will vote in the next provincial election. (CityNews Edmonton)
UCP and NDP Both at 41 Per Cent
The latest survey puts both major parties at 41 per cent provincewide.
In Janet Brown’s April survey, the UCP had 49 per cent support compared with 36 per cent for the NDP. The latest numbers therefore represent an eight-point decline for the governing party and a five-point increase for the opposition. (338Canada)
The September survey was conducted between September 8 and 21 among 1,200 Alberta respondents. The estimated margin of error for the overall sample is approximately plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. (Janet Brown Opinion)
Nenshi Points to Seat Projections
NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi pointed to seat projections associated with the poll and said they indicated that his party could form a majority government if an election were held at the time of the survey.
Nenshi described the results as encouraging for the Alberta NDP.
However, seat projections based on provincewide polling are estimates rather than actual election results, and Alberta’s next scheduled provincial election is still in the future.
Calgary-Shaw Byelection Adds to the Political Discussion
The poll comes shortly after the Alberta NDP won the Calgary-Shaw byelection on September 14.
NDP candidate Kyle Campbell received 7,461 valid votes, or about 46.7 per cent, while UCP candidate Mike Derry received 6,879 votes, or about 43 per cent.
The result flipped a riding that had been held by the UCP since 2019. Official results were confirmed on September 24. (CityNews Calgary)
The Calgary result has attracted attention because the city has been an important electoral battleground between the UCP and NDP.
The byelection result, however, represents one constituency and should be distinguished from provincewide polling.
Referendum Becomes Part of Political Conversation
The latest polling also comes less than a month before Alberta’s October referendum.
Elections Alberta has confirmed that the referendum will take place on October 19, 2026. (Elections Alberta)
The referendum includes a question concerning whether the Alberta government should begin the constitutional legal process required to hold a binding referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada.
The independence question has become an important part of Alberta’s political discussion, although the October vote itself would not constitute a binding vote on separation.
Mount Royal University associate professor of policy studies Lori Williams told CityNews that increased attention to provincial politics and the approaching referendum may be contributing to changes in voter sentiment. (CityNews Calgary)
Albertans Express Different Views
The CityNews report accompanying the poll included interviews with Alberta residents who expressed differing opinions about the provincial government and the upcoming referendum.
One voter described the referendum as a waste of time and money, while another said they were more satisfied with Premier Danielle Smith’s government than they had been with the previous NDP government. (CityNews Calgary)
The contrasting views illustrate that the poll numbers do not capture every dimension of voter opinion. Party support, views of individual leaders and attitudes toward specific policies can differ.
Other Polls Show a Different Picture
The latest Janet Brown survey is also notable because other recent Alberta polls have produced different results.
A Research Co. survey conducted in August and released on September 2 found the UCP ahead of the NDP among decided voters, 46 per cent to 43 per cent. That survey was based on an online sample of 750 likely voters in Alberta. (Research Co.)
A separate aggregation of publicly available Alberta polling also shows the Janet Brown survey as one of several recent measurements in which the gap between the two parties has varied considerably. (Alberta Now)
The differences between polls underline why individual surveys should be treated as measurements of public opinion at a particular point in time rather than as forecasts of an election result.
Health Care and Affordability Remain Important
The political discussion in Alberta continues to involve issues including health care, the economy, affordability, jobs and the province’s relationship with Ottawa.
Health care has been among the issues frequently identified by Alberta voters as a major concern, while the economy and inflation have also featured prominently in public opinion research. (Alberta Now)
The two major parties are therefore competing not only over overall voter support but also over how Albertans assess their respective approaches to provincial policy.
Next Stages of Alberta Politics
The October 19 referendum will be one of the next major events in Alberta’s political calendar.
The UCP is also scheduled to hold its annual general meeting from November 27 to 29 in Calgary, where members will consider policy and constitutional matters as well as electing party board positions. (United Conservative Party of Alberta)
These developments will take place while both major parties prepare for the next provincial election.
For the moment, the latest Janet Brown poll shows a much closer race in party support than the same pollster recorded in the spring. The UCP and NDP are each at 41 per cent, but the result should be viewed within the wider range of recent polling and the margin of error.
The coming months will provide further measurements of Alberta voter sentiment as the referendum, provincial policy debates and preparations for the next election continue.
