Muhammad Amanullah
Date: September 25, 2026 The True Post (Web News) —Canada has been reviewing contingency planning for highly unlikely but potentially serious security scenarios, including the possibility of U.S.-led military action against the country, Prime Minister Mark Carney has confirmed.
In a recent interview with The New York Times, Carney said he had examined the possibility of U.S. military action against Canada and described it as an “extreme tail risk” — a term used in risk management for an event considered highly unlikely but potentially severe if it occurred.
Carney did not provide details about what the review involved, but said that examining such scenarios was part of responsible risk management and was not the government’s base-case expectation. (Global News)
Carney Calls It an “Extreme Tail Risk”
Carney said political leaders have a responsibility to examine even highly unlikely scenarios when the consequences could be significant.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney told The New York Times, adding that it was “not a base case” but that it would be irresponsible not to prepare. (Global News)
The prime minister declined to discuss the specific measures or military scenarios examined by Canadian officials.
His comments came amid repeated statements by U.S. President Donald Trump about Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state. Trump ruled out using military force to annex Canada in January 2025, although he has subsequently spoken about using economic pressure to encourage Canada to join the United States. (Global News)
U.S. Military View of the Scenario
The idea of a U.S. military attack on Canada has also been raised with senior American military officials.
When U.S. Indo-Pacific Command chief Adm. Samuel Paparo was asked about the possibility, he responded dismissively, comparing the question to asking about military plans for an attack by Martians.
His response underlined the extent to which such a scenario is viewed as extraordinarily unlikely within the current U.S. military context.
Defence Planning Covers Unlikely Scenarios
Canada’s military maintains contingency plans for a range of possible national-security situations.
Retired Lt.-Gen. Andrew Leslie, who previously held senior positions within Canada’s defence establishment, said such plans are routinely reviewed and updated as international circumstances change.
According to Leslie, defence planners assess developments in countries relevant to Canadian security, consult other government departments and outside experts, make judgments about potential scenarios and then update or retain contingency plans for future use. (Ontario Chronicle)
Such planning is not limited to conventional war. Military contingency planning can involve a range of possible crises and security situations, depending on the circumstances.
Increased Attention Under Trump
Leslie said Canada’s contingency planning would likely have received additional attention following Trump’s return to the White House in 2024.
He also pointed to statements from the Trump administration concerning Greenland and repeated references to Canada potentially becoming part of the United States.
According to Leslie, those developments could have resulted in a “heightened focus” on scenarios involving Canada and its southern neighbour. (Ontario Chronicle)
He also noted that defence plans are often reassessed when a new government or leader takes power in a country that has a significant impact on Canada’s security interests.
Canada Has Not Announced an Imminent Military Threat
Despite the review of such scenarios, the Canadian government has not announced that it believes a U.S. military attack is imminent.
Carney’s own description of the possibility as an “extreme tail risk” indicates that the government considers it an exceptionally unlikely scenario rather than its expected outcome.
The distinction is important because military and national-security agencies routinely prepare for events that may never occur.
Geography Would Make a Military Conflict Complex
Any conventional military conflict between the United States and Canada would involve countries with a vast shared border, extensive economic ties and deeply integrated defence arrangements.
Canada’s geography, including its enormous landmass and Arctic territory, would also create major logistical considerations for any large-scale military operation.
However, contingency planning does not necessarily mean that Canadian officials are preparing for a full-scale invasion. Such planning can cover a broad range of circumstances, including limited military incidents, disruptions to critical infrastructure and other national-security emergencies.
Broader Defence Preparedness
The discussion comes as Canada is reassessing aspects of its defence and strategic relationship with the United States.
Carney has also said Canada is examining ways to reduce its reliance on certain U.S.-based technologies and suppliers, while Ottawa has considered alternatives in some defence procurement decisions. (iPolitics)
Canada is simultaneously seeking stronger defence and strategic relationships with other partners. Recent government activity has included closer cooperation with European countries as Ottawa seeks to strengthen its ability to respond to changing international conditions. (Reuters)
Risk Assessment Rather Than Prediction
The current discussion therefore centres on contingency planning rather than a prediction that the United States will attack Canada.
Carney has confirmed that the possibility was examined because of the potentially serious consequences of such an event. Canadian defence officials have also described contingency planning as an ongoing process in which scenarios are reviewed and updated as geopolitical conditions change.
For now, Ottawa has provided no public indication that it considers U.S. military action against Canada an expected or imminent development. The government’s publicly stated position is that the scenario falls within the category of highly unlikely risks that national-security planners nevertheless have a responsibility to consider.
