Muhammad Amanullah
Date: October 10, 2026 The True Post (Web News) —A new poll released just one week before Vancouver’s mayoral election has revealed a closely contested race. According to the survey, Green Party candidate Pete Fry holds a lead of just one percentage point over incumbent Mayor Ken Sim among decided voters.
Fry received 28 per cent support, compared with 27 per cent for Sim. However, the poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, meaning the narrow difference does not indicate a clear lead for either candidate.
Several Candidates in the Race
The survey was conducted by Canada Plus Insights exclusively for CityNews and OMNI Television. It placed Vancouver Liberal candidate Kareem Allam in third position with 19 per cent support.
Among the other candidates, Colleen Hardwick of Team for a Livable Vancouver received 13 per cent, Rebecca Bligh of Vote Vancouver secured 7 per cent, and Muhammad Ahmed of Bright Future Vancouver received 3 per cent.
The poll also examined a group of decided voters who said they would definitely vote or had already cast their ballots. Within this group, Pete Fry received 29 per cent support and Ken Sim 28 per cent, again leaving only a one-percentage-point difference between them.
Voters Have Different Priorities
John Wright, chief executive of Canada Plus Insights, described the mayoral contest as divided among different candidates and political tendencies. According to Wright, two candidates are particularly prominent in the race, but their supporters have different priorities.
Wright said Fry’s supporters place importance on environmental issues, ethical governance, accountability, housing affordability and reducing costs. He said these priorities reflect a distinct political agenda.
Ken Sim’s supporters also consider inflation and everyday expenses important. However, crime prevention, municipal taxes and accountability for the city administration’s finances are also prominent concerns among his supporters.
According to Wright, voters who prioritise these issues may include older residents and homeowners, who tend to take municipal elections seriously. However, the survey did not provide a complete breakdown of the numbers within these groups.
Ten Per Cent of Voters Remain Undecided
According to the survey, 10 per cent of all respondents had not yet decided which candidate to support. This figure includes respondents who were also asked whether they leaned towards any particular candidate.
Wright said that during election campaigns, around 18 to 20 per cent of people are often undecided at some stage. However, some of these individuals do not ultimately make it to the polling station to cast their ballots.
According to Wright, some voters consider not only candidates’ policies but also their personalities and their ability to represent the public’s concerns. He added that people seeking change must also determine what kind of change they want.
Final Days Could Shift the Race
Wright said the Thanksgiving holiday could give people opportunities to discuss election issues with family members and friends. In his view, undecided voters may make their final choices as election day approaches.
He said that when the gap between leading candidates is this narrow, voter turnout and the decisions made by undecided voters can have a significant impact on the outcome.
Wright added that looking at polling figures alone is not enough in such a closely contested race. It is also important to consider how many supporters of each candidate actually turn out to vote.
Ken Sim Previously Won the Mayoral Election
Ken Sim won Vancouver’s 2022 municipal election with slightly more than 50 per cent of the vote. In the current election, he faces several challengers, including Pete Fry.
The main voting day in Vancouver is scheduled for October 17. Advance voting took place on October 3 and October 7, with additional opportunities to vote scheduled for October 10 and October 13.
How Was the Poll Conducted?
According to Canada Plus Insights, the survey collected online responses from 500 adult residents of Vancouver between September 28 and October 6.
The poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, which the organisation described using a 19-out-of-20 confidence standard.
Because the difference between Pete Fry and Ken Sim falls within that margin of error, the survey cannot be interpreted as establishing a clear lead for either candidate.
The final result may be influenced by voters’ eventual preferences, decisions made by undecided residents and the number of people who turn out to vote on election day.
